Page 117 - BRIDS IAR 2023_hires

Tinjauan Kondisi Pasar Obligasi 2023
Bonds Market Outlook 2023

Tekanan global, terutama kebijakan dari The Fed, Global pressures, particularly the policies of The Fed,
berperan cukup besar dalam pergerakan pasar obligasi significantly influenced the movement of the bond market
di tahun 2023. Imbal hasil obligasi pemerintah Amerika in 2023. The yield on 10-year U.S Treasury bonds rose to
Serikat (AS) atau US Treasury 10-tahun sempat naik hingga 4.98% in October 2023, marking the highest level since
ke level 4,98% di bulan Oktober 2023 yang merupakan 2007. Several factors drove the increase in U.S Treasury
level tertingginya sejak tahun 2007. Beberapa faktor yields. These included the upward trend of the Fed Funds
yang mendorong peningkatan imbal hasil US Treasury Rate (FFR) throughout 2023 and indications suggesting it
tersebut adalah tren peningkatan suku bunga Fed Funds would maintain a higher for longer stance. Additionally,
Rate (FFR) selama tahun 2023 dan indikasi akan tetap the rise in term premium and the substantial supply of U.S
berada dalam kebijakan suku bunga tinggi dalam waktu Treasury, fueled by both U.S demand and capital outflows
lama (higher for longer stance). Selain itu, naiknya term from major holders like China and Japan, contributed
premium serta tingginya pasokan US Treasury baik karena to the increase. Consequently, U.S Treasury yields saw a
kebutuhan AS maupun akibat adanya aliran modal keluar decline from November to December due to a decrease
dari pemegang utama US Treasury seperti China dan in the U.S Treasury supply target, a reduction in term
Jepang turun mendorong naiknya imbal hasil US Treasury. premium, and the Fed's decision to maintain the FFR at
Selanjutnya, imbal hasil US Treasury kembali mengalami its current level.
penurunan sejak November hingga Desember karena
turunnya target pasokan US Treasury, menurunnya term
premium, serta keputusan The Fed untuk menjaga FFR di
level nya saat itu.

Sementara itu, imbal hasil Surat Berharga Negara (SBN) Meanwhile, Government Securities (SBN) yields
cenderung bergerak secara volatil selama tahun 2023. experienced volatility throughout 2023. Specifically, the 10-
Tercatat, imbal hasil SBN 10-tahun sempat turun di bulan year SBN yield dropped in January to 6.66% from 6.94% at
Januari menjadi 6,66% dari 6,94% di akhir tahun 2022, the end of 2022 and subsequently rose to 7.05% due to the
kemudian meningkat ke level 7,05% karena sentimen sentiment surrounding the crisis of several regional banks
krisis beberapa bank regional di AS dan diiringi dengan in the U.S, along with strict policies implemented by the
kebijakan ketat yang diambil oleh The Fed. Selanjutnya, Fed. Furthermore, SBN yields decreased again to 6.18% due
imbal hasil SBN kembali mengalami penurunan hingga to various factors, including the stabilization of BI interest
ke level 6,18% akibat beberapa faktor seperti stabilnya suku rates amid an increase in the FFR, as well as various BI
bunga BI di tengah kenaikan FFR termasuk juga berbagai and Government policy stimuli aimed at maintaining
stimulus kebijakan BI dan Pemerintah agar kondisi stable and attractive domestic market conditions, leading
pasar domestik tetap stabil dan menarik sehingga aliran to foreign capital inflows of Rp50.9 trillion during March
modal asing dapat masuk sebesar Rp50,9 triliun selama to July 2023. However, global pressures increased again
bulan Maret hingga Juli 2023. Namun demikian, tekanan as the dolan index strengthened to 107 in October and
global kembali meningkat seiring dengan menguatnya pushed the Rupiah weaker to Rp15,940 per USD. The
indeks dolan hingga mencapai 107 di bulan Oktober dan pressure prompted BI to raise the BI rate by 25bps to 6.00%
mendorong pelemahan Rupiah menjadi Rp15.940 per after stopping the rate hike for nine consecutive months.
USD. Tekanan tersebut mendorong BI kembali menaikkan This triggered SBN yields to increase to 7.26% in October
suku bunga BI sebesar 25bps menjadi 6.00% setelah and foreign capital outflow of Rp44.8 trillion from August
menghentikan kenaikan suku bunga selama Sembilan to October. Towards the end of 2023, global pressures
bulan berturut-turut. Hal tersebut memicu imbal hasil eased and pushed SBN yields back into a downward trend,
SBN kembali meningkat menjadi 7,26% di bulan Oktober closing at 6.48%.
dan aliran modal keluar investor asing sebesar Rp44,8
triliun selama bulan Agustus hingga Oktober. Mendekati
akhir 2023, tekanan global mereda dan mendorong imbal
hasil SBN kembali dalam tren penurunan dan ditutup di
level 6,48%.

PT BRI Danareksa Sekuritas 117 Integrated Annual Report 2023