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Performance
Highlight 2020
PROSPEK USAHA

BUSINESS PROSPECT

Proyeksi Perekonomian Indonesia Tahun 2021
Indonesian Economic Projection in 2020

Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia diprakirakan akan pulih The growth of Indonesian economy is estimated going to be
di tahun 2021 meskipun BRIDS memperkirakan belum akan recovered in 2021 even though the BRIDS predicts that it is still not
kembali pada level pertumbuhan rata-rata sebelum pandemi. going to return to the average growth levels prior the pandemic.
Proyeksi BRIDS berada di bawah asumsi pertumbuhan ekonomi The projection of BRIDS is under the assumptions of economic
dalam RAPBN 2021. BRIDS memperkirakan pertumbuhan growth in 2021 RAPBN. BRIDS estimates the economic growth
ekonomi di 2021 akan di kisaran 2,9-4%, di bawah RAPBN in 2021 will be in the range of 2.9-4%, below 2021 RAPBN which
2021 yang memprediksikan pertumbuhan di kisaran 4,5-5,5%. predicted the growth in the range of 4.5-5.5%. The uncertainty
Ketidakpastikan dari pandemi Covid-19 diprakirakan masih akan from Covid-19 pandemic is estimated to still occur in 2021, even
mewarnai tahun 2021 meskipun kemungkinan produksi vaksin though the possible production of vaccine began to be produced
mulai di produksi dan didistribusikan di 2021 cukup tinggi. and distributed in 2021 is relatively high.

Memasuki 2021, kondisi ekonomi nasional diprakirakan mulai Upon entering 2021, the national economic conditions is
pulih. Kondisi “new normal” atau adaptasi kebiasaan baru estimated going to begin to recover. The “new normal” conditions
ditambah dengan faktor base effect yang rendah di 2020 plus the low base effect factors in 2020 encourage the economic
mendorong kinerja perekonomian tumbuh tinggi di 2021 pada performance to grow higher in 2021 in the range of 2.9-4%. The
kisaran 2,9-4%. Proyeksi yang dibuat oleh BRIDS lebih rendah projections made by the Company are lower than the government
dari asumsi pemerintah mengingat downside risk dari belum assumptions, considering the downside risk from the unexpired
berakhirnya gangguan akibat pandemi Covid-19. Durasi pandemi disruption caused by Covid-19 pandemic. The longer duration
Covid-19 yang lebih lama mengakibatkan pada triwulan I of Covid-19 pandemic resulted in the Q1/2021 even though
2021 walau pun perekonomian sudah tumbuh positif tetapi the economy had grown positively but still relatively low. The
masih relatif rendah. Dampak tingginya korban jiwa, lonjakan impact of high casualties, the spike in business termination
penghentian usaha dan pengangguran yang relatif besar and the relatively large number of unemployment have made
membuat proses pemulihan aktivitas ekonomi memerlukan the recovery process of economic activity requires longer time,
waktu yang lebih lama sehingga mengurangi kapasitas produksi thereby reducing the national production capacity (loss of human
nasional (terjadi loss of human capital). Kinerja konsumsi capital occurance). The performance of society consumption
masyarakat masih diprakirakan relatif lambat akibat daya beli is estimated to be relatively slow due to low public purchasing
masyarakat rendah walau pun masih didukung oleh program power, although it is still supported by the ongoing social
bantuan sosial penanganan Covid-19 yang masih berjalan. Tahun assistance program of Covid-19 handling. In 2021, the Province
2021, Upah Minimum Provinsi diprakirakan tidak meningkat Minimum Wage is estimated to not increase in accordance with
sesuai arahan dari Kemenaker. directions of the Ministry of Manpower.

Program pemulihan ekonomi berjalan namun membutuhkan The economic recovery program is running but requires the
waktu yang relatif lebih panjang. Langkah-langkah reformasi relatively longer time. The reform steps to increase the efficiency
untuk meningkatkan efisiensi dan produktivitas serta iklim usaha and productivity as well as the condusive business climate are
yang kondusif berjalan dengan baik membantu proses pemulihan running well to assist the economic recovery process. Investment
ekonomi. Investasi mulai menggeliat kembali namun masih pada has begun to revive but it is still at the relatively low level
level yang relatif rendah dibanding kondisi sebelum pandemi. compared to the conditions before the pandemic. The recovery
Proses pemulihan masih berjalan dengan tren yang meningkat process is still ongoing with the increasing trend but requires the
namun membutuhkan periode pemulihan yang lebih panjang. longer recovery period. The reform steps is expected to provide
Langkah-langkah reformasi diekspektasi akan memberikan support for the acceleration of economic growth at the end of
dukungan terhadap percepatan pertumbuhan ekonomi pada 2021 and the following years.
akhir 2021 dan tahun berikutnya.

Annual Report 2020 PT BRI Danareksa Sekuritas

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