Holding Market Outlook, BRIDS Enriches Investors' Insights for the Political Year
Jakarta, 07 September 2023 - Entering the second semester of 2023, ahead of the political year, Indonesia's macroeconomic performance is predicted to be quite resilient. On the other hand, data shows that transaction values in the capital market tend to increase driven by greater capital flows compared to other periods a year before the general election period. Some of these things tend to raise questions among domestic investors regarding market conditions in the 2024 political year, as well as what kind of investment strategy investors need to prepare.
In order to answer this need, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas ("BRIDS"), a subsidiary of PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (IDX: BBRI) and associated entity PT Danareksa (Persero), held a Market Outlook event entitled "Investment Strategy Entering the Political Year" which presents expert speakers consisting of economists, political observers and professional traders, online on Thursday, 31 August 2023.
This market outlook event presented BRI Consumer Business Director Handayani as Keynote Speaker, and several other speakers such as BRIDS Chief Economist & Macro Strategy Helmy Kristanto, Political Observer Burhanudin Muhtadi, Professional Trader Hans Kwee, and was attended by hundreds of participants from all over Indonesia.
BRI Consumer Business Director Handayani, at the opening of the Market Outlook event, revealed that Indonesia's economic growth through Bank Indonesia's (BI) prudential macro policies continues to grow strongly amidst global uncertainty. According to data from the Ministry of Finance and Bank Indonesia, this data provides a positive signal for the economy in the second quarter of this year. Then, the BI Board of Governors (RDG) Meeting maintained the BI-7 Day Reverse Repo Rate (BI-7DRR) to keep inflation under control at 3%.
"Even though there will be challenges ahead, we hope that with the right strategy and wise investment, our investment performance can get better in the coming year. Let's stay optimistic." Handayani emphasized.
He also added that BRI as the Holding Company of BRIDS would provide full support by further encouraging literacy and education, as well as increasing the number of events to widely introduce capital market products to the public.
Agreeing with Handayani, BRIDS Chief Economist & Macro Strategy Helmy Kristanto explained that going forward the trend will focus on economic growth. “With the disinflationary trend continuing and more and more Central Banks choosing to stop their interest rate hike policy, the main focus will be on economic growth. From the domestic side, it is estimated that Bank Indonesia will maintain interest rates until the end of this year. Going forward, the election period will support domestic consumption, which has historically been positive for equity markets with an influx of foreign investors.” explained Helmy.
Political Observer, Prof. Burhanudin Muhtadi Ph.D. considers that despite the slowdown, Indonesia is still considered resilient compared to the global economy and several neighboring countries amidst the looming political sentiments of the year.
"The economy itself is predicted to grow positively in the midst of global uncertainty considering the current government policy is also aimed at increasing President Jokowi's approval rating which will determine the outcome of the election. If President Jokowi can maintain economic stability, this will support candidates affiliated with him, while conversely, if he cannot maintain economic stability, he will support candidates who tend to be at odds with him in the upcoming elections," said Burhanundin.
He also said that basically the market will tend to wait and see, but after the election is over the economy will return to normal whoever is elected. Plus, the pandemic situation which previously weakened the economy has ended, meaning this will give a positive signal, especially to the upper middle class which is starting to increase consumption, especially in the travel and culinary sectors, so it is predicted to encourage economic stability.
Meanwhile, Hans Kwee, who is known as a Professional Trader, also expressed the view that the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) will show a positive trend during the election period. "During the months and years of elections, both legislative elections and presidential elections, the IHSG always shows an upward trend. This was also followed by an increase in the amount of money circulating in society, which could come from various programs such as Direct Cash Assistance (BLT) or the Family Hope Program (PKH). Under these conditions, the stock sectors on the Indonesian Stock Exchange that are encouraged are the consumer sector and the financial sector. "Hopefully, with the right strategy and investing in the right sector, investment performance in the next year can increase," explained Hans.
BRIDS President Director Laksono Widodo said that this event is expected to enrich the insight of Indonesian investors so they can make better and more mature investment decisions entering the political year. "This event is a form of our commitment and service to customers and investors in Indonesia to continue to provide education and information that customers can consider to get the best results in investing and managing finances in the capital market." closed Laksono.